I’m not sure incident is the correct word, but at this point I do not know exactly what to call this.

A Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 has crashed in Ukraine, and there are reports that it was shot down during the conflict there among Ukrainians, Russians and Ukrainians aligned with Russia known as “separatists”.  So you have Ukrainian military fighting with Separatists who are aligned with and backed by Putin’s Russia.

Here are the basic facts as we know them now.  The airliner was enroute from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur and cruising at altitude (33,000 ft) when contact was lost over Ukraine, and reports of an airplane crash began coming in.  Eye witness accounts say the aircraft “fell in pieces” and preliminary reports indicate a very large debris field consistent with a breakup of the plane at cruising altitude.  There were no survivors at the crash site.  There are rumors also that at the same time Separatists were on Twitter claiming to have just shot down a Ukrainian military transport, as they had previously done a day or two before. Once Malaysia Airlines confirmed it’s flight was missing, the tweets were deleted.  The Separatists are also believed to be in possession of the type of military ground-to-air missiles that would be capable of striking an aircraft at that high altitude.  The plane was flying too high to be vulnerable to a shoulder-launched “stinger” type missile.  As far as I can tell those are the facts.

Now for the speculation: it is very possible that the Boeing 777 airliner was shot down by Separatists who mistook it for a Ukrainian AN-26 transport.  It is confirmed they had shot one down a day or two before this incident.  The planes look nothing alike, but they are of similar size, and if the separatists had reports of military planes in the area, then undisciplined operators or commanders could have made the error.  There is also this:  the Kiev Post is reporting that the Ukrainian Security Force (SBU) intercepted phone calls between Separatist commanders talking about the situation which seem to confirm the hypothesis of mistaken identity.  Chilling, if true:

Igor Bezler: We have just shot down a plane. Group Minera. It fell down beyond Yenakievo (Donetsk Oblast).

Vasili Geranin: Pilots. Where are the pilots?

IB: Gone to search for and photograph the plane. Its smoking.

VG: How many minutes ago?

IB: About 30 minutes ago.

SBU comment: After examining the site of the plane the terrorists come to the conclusion that they have shot down a civilian plane. The next part of the conversation took place about 40 minutes later.

“Major”: These are Chernukhin folks who shot down the plane. From the Chernukhin check point. Those cossacks who are based in Chernukhino.

“Grek”: Yes, Major.

“Major”: The plane fell apart in the air. In the area of Petropavlovskaya mine. The first “200” (code word for dead person). We have found the first “200”. A Civilian.

“Greek”: Well, what do you have there?

“Major”: In short, it was 100 percent a passenger (civilian) aircraft.

“Greek”: Are many people there?

“Major”: Holy sh__t! The debris fell right into the yards (of homes).

“Greek”: What kind of aircraft?

“Major”: I haven’t ascertained this. I haven’t been to the main sight. I am only surveying the scene where the first bodies fell. There are the remains of internal brackets, seats and bodies.

“Greek”: Is there anything left of the weapon?

“Major”: Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.

“Greek”: Are there documents?

“Major”: Yes, of one Indonesian student. From a university in Thompson. 

Militant: Regarding the plane shot down in the area of Snizhne-Torez. It’s a civilian one. Fell down near Grabove. There are lots of corpses of women and children. The Cossacks are out there looking at all this.

They say on TV it’s AN-26 transport plane, but they say it’s written Malaysia Airlines on the plane. What was it doing on Ukraine’s territory?

Like I said, chilling if true.  I’m sure there will be a lot of finger pointing by both sides before we find out what actually happened.   280 passengers and 15 crew lost.  Many different nationalities on board, including Americans.  This is a full blown International Incident which will put the Ukrainian conflict in the front pages for some time.

Additional Info:

New York Times

Fox News

Kiev Post